Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 48.76%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 23.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.65%), while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.