Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 63.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Ascoli had a probability of 14.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.3%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for an Ascoli win it was 0-1 (5.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
