Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 72.27%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 11.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.56%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-2 (3.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Arouca |
72.27% | 16.34% | 11.39% |
Both teams to score 53.94% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.5% | 34.49% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.57% | 56.43% |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.67% | 8.33% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.97% | 29.03% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.84% | 41.16% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.3% | 77.7% |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Arouca |
2-0 @ 10.59% 2-1 @ 9.4% 3-0 @ 8.78% 1-0 @ 8.52% 3-1 @ 7.79% 4-0 @ 5.45% 4-1 @ 4.84% 3-2 @ 3.46% 5-0 @ 2.71% 5-1 @ 2.41% 4-2 @ 2.15% 6-0 @ 1.12% 5-2 @ 1.07% 6-1 @ 1% Other @ 2.98% Total : 72.27% | 1-1 @ 7.56% 2-2 @ 4.17% 0-0 @ 3.43% 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.15% Total : 16.34% | 1-2 @ 3.36% 0-1 @ 3.04% 0-2 @ 1.35% 2-3 @ 1.24% 1-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.41% Total : 11.39% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 31 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 72 | 17 | 55 | 80 |
2 | Porto | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 76 |
3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 67 |
5 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 48 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 |
7 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 13 | 3 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
10 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 40 |
11 | Vizela | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 39 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 |
13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 34 |
14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 31 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
16 | Maritimo | 31 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 58 | -29 | 23 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 20 |
18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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