Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 78.76%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 6.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.85%) and 3-0 (12.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.84%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (2.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
Result | ||
Arsenal | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
78.76% ( 0.61) | 15.03% ( -0.24) | 6.21% ( -0.37) |
Both teams to score 35.18% ( -1.23) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.57% ( -0.43) | 46.43% ( 0.44) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.29% ( -0.41) | 68.71% ( 0.41) |
Arsenal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.25% ( 0.04) | 9.75% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.55% ( 0.1) | 32.45% ( -0.1) |
Nottingham Forest Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
38.98% ( -1.38) | 61.02% ( 1.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
8.84% ( -0.7) | 91.16% ( 0.7) |
Score Analysis |
Arsenal | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
2-0 @ 16.12% ( 0.36) 1-0 @ 13.85% ( 0.28) 3-0 @ 12.5% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 7.96% ( -0.19) 4-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 6.18% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.11) 6-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.36% Total : 78.75% | 1-1 @ 6.84% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.27% Total : 15.03% | 0-1 @ 2.94% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.12) Other @ 1.58% Total : 6.21% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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