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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 35.89% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Crawley Town | Draw | MK Dons |
35.89% ( 0.36) | 26.39% ( 0) | 37.72% ( -0.36) |
Both teams to score 52.9% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.14% ( 0) | 51.86% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.38% ( 0) | 73.62% ( -0) |
Crawley Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.2% ( 0.22) | 27.8% ( -0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.61% ( 0.28) | 63.39% ( -0.28) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.26% ( -0.2) | 26.74% ( 0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.99% ( -0.27) | 62.01% ( 0.27) |
Score Analysis |
Crawley Town | Draw | MK Dons |
1-0 @ 9.52% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.87% Total : 35.89% | 1-1 @ 12.55% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.43% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.3% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.39% | 0-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 8.28% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.22% Total : 37.72% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 51 |
2 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 25 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 49 |
3 | Wrexham | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 49 |
4 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 48 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 44 |
6 | Notts County | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 42 |
7 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 39 |
8 | MK Dons | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 39 |
9 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 39 |
10 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 38 |
11 | Gillingham | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 38 |
12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 37 |
13 | Walsall | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 36 |
14 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 52 | -3 | 34 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 |
17 | Morecambe | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 33 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 31 |
19 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 28 |
20 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 27 |
21 | Salford City | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 24 |
23 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 18 |
24 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 18 |
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