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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.15%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 20.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.6%) and 1-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 1-0 (6.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Shrewsbury Town | Draw | Derby County |
20.44% ( 0.07) | 24.4% ( 0.01) | 55.15% ( -0.08) |
Both teams to score 48.17% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.21% ( 0.01) | 52.79% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.58% ( 0.01) | 74.41% ( -0.02) |
Shrewsbury Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.51% ( 0.08) | 40.49% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.9% ( 0.07) | 77.09% ( -0.07) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.95% ( -0.03) | 19.04% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.37% ( -0.04) | 50.63% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Shrewsbury Town | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 6.97% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 5.23% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.26% Total : 20.44% | 1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.79% Total : 24.4% | 0-1 @ 12.78% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 10.6% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.59% ( -0) 0-3 @ 5.86% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 5.3% ( -0) 0-4 @ 2.43% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.2% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.99% Other @ 3% Total : 55.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Portsmouth | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 53 |
2 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 24 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 51 |
3 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 50 | 27 | 23 | 49 |
4 | Derby CountyDerby | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 24 | 23 | 49 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 46 |
6 | Barnsley | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 28 | 18 | 43 |
7 | Stevenage | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 43 |
8 | Blackpool | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 32 | 10 | 39 |
9 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 25 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 36 |
10 | Bristol Rovers | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 34 |
11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 32 |
12 | Leyton Orient | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 30 |
14 | Port Vale | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 30 |
15 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 30 |
16 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 29 |
17 | Burton Albion | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 28 |
18 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 27 |
19 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 27 |
20 | Exeter CityExeter | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 37 | -19 | 26 |
21 | Reading | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 23 |
22 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 23 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 38 | -17 | 20 |
24 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 18 |
> League One Full Table |