Derby cruised to a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture in August, and we think that they will claim another win against Burton to move into the League One promotion places.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 70.39%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Burton Albion had a probability of 11.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.34%), while for a Burton Albion win it was 0-1 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
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