Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (7.96%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (10.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.