Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 42.76%. A win for Kyrgyzstan had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.9%) and 2-0 (5.33%). The likeliest Kyrgyzstan win was 1-2 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tajikistan would win this match.