Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 59.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 18.59%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.46%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-0 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.