Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 45.67%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 27.17% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.83%) and 2-1 (8.82%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
