Preview: Japan vs. Saudi Arabia - prediction, team news, lineups

Saudi Arabia can punch their ticket to World Cup 2022 on Tuesday with a victory over Japan at Saitama Stadium in the Land of the Rising Sun.

The Green Falcons are unbeaten in qualifying thus far and four points clear of the Samurai Blue, who have won four straight fixtures, following a 1-0 defeat to the Saudis in October.

Match preview

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In their first qualifier of the New Year, Hajime Moriyasu and his Japanese side picked up right where they left off in 2021, going in front after 13 minutes on Thursday against China, while their defence did the rest, shutting down their arch-rivals, collecting a third successive clean sheet in a 2-0 win.

When they can jump ahead to an early lead, they are a tough team to catch, having found the back of the net within the opening 20 minutes of play in three of their previous four qualifiers.

Moriyasu and the team learned a hard lesson at the previous World Cup about the consequences of being complacent, as the man who served as an assistant to Akira Nishino in 2018 saw his side squander a 2-0 second-half advantage to Belgium, falling 3-2 thanks to a last-gasp winner from Nacer Chadli.

Since that heartbreaking defeat, the Samurai Blue have never lost when scoring first, winning 23 of their 25 matches in which they have drawn first blood, only dropping points versus Uruguay (2-2) and Ecuador (1-1) at the 2019 Copa America.

As compact and composed as they have looked, it can all come crashing down in a hurry, especially seeing as Australia are nipping at their heels, just a point behind them for second place in that group.

Since dropping a 1-0 decision to Colombia in March 2019, they have only suffered one defeat on home soil, conceding an 88th-minute strike to Issam Al Sabhi in a 1-0 loss to Oman in their opening match of this qualifying round.

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A place in Qatar is within reach for Saudi Arabia, who have won 12 of their 15 qualification fixtures in the second and third round, with the other three results being draws against Palestine (0-0), Yemen (2-2) and most recently Australia (0-0).

Manager Herve Renard has a lovely luxury which his Japanese counterpart cannot boast, as the entire Saudi team feature domestically in the Western Asian nation, and that familiarity among the players is evident.

The 53-year-old Frenchman has brought out the best from this team, turning them into a cohesive unit, while their individual quality has shone brightly.

This edition of The Green Falcons are fast and direct, while also being much more compact and disciplined than they were under their former boss Bert van Marwijk, who was dismissed before the 2018 finals.

When you watch how calm and composed they are during their games, it is hard to believe that only three players on the current squad selected for this qualifying window are 30 years of age or older.

They have not conceded on the road in their previous four qualifying matches, outscoring their opponents 5-0 over that stretch.

Team News

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Genk midfielder Junya Ito leads the Samurai Warriors with three goals in this qualification round, scoring once in each of their previous three fixtures, while Yuya Osako has the most for this team in this entire campaign with 10, one more than Takumi Minamino of Liverpool and one fewer than Kazushi Kimura for seventh all-time in the history of this team.

Shuichi Gonda has maintained three consecutive clean sheets in goal for Japan, while defender Yuto Nagatomo has been a calming presence to the backline, as he has made the second-most international appearances for the senior side at 132, which is still well back of the all-time leader Yasuhito Endo, who had 152.

Celtic striker Daizen Maeda collected his third cap for the national team on Thursday, replacing Osako in the 58th minute as he continues to search for his first international goal.

Saudi Arabia striker Firas al-Buraikan had the only tally in a 1-0 win over Oman last week, as he and Saleh Al-Shehri lead this squad with three in the third round of qualifying, while Salem Al-Dawsari has six in total in their 2022 qualifiers, which is tied with Al-Shehri.

Mohammed Al-Owais, who stopped all four Japanese efforts on target in a shutout victory last October, started their previous match, picking up a clean sheet in relief of Mohammed Al Rubaie, who was in goal for the two prior encounters, when the Saudis blanked the Socceroos and Vietnam.

Yasser Al-Shahrani is their most experienced defender with 65 caps to his name, having formed a solid partnership at the back with his Al-Halal teammate Ali Al-Bulaihi along with Sultan Al-Ghanam and Abdulelah Al-Amri from Al-Nassr.

Japan possible starting lineup:
Gonda; Sakai, Itakura, Ueda, Nagatomo; Endo; Ito, Tanaka, Morita, Kubo; Osako

Saudi Arabia possible starting lineup:
Al-Owais; Al-Ghanam, Al-Amri, Al-Bulaihi, Al-Shahrani; Kanno, Al-Khaibari; Al-Hassan, Al-Najei, Al-Dawsari; Al-Buraikan

We say: Japan 1-0 Saudi Arabia

These are two evenly matched teams, who could both be qualified for the World Cup at the end of this round, but we are giving the Samurai Warriors a slight edge, primarily because they have been a little better when it comes to limiting the amount of quality scoring opportunities of their opponents.

In their 10 visits to the Land of the Rising Sun, the Saudis have lost nine times to the Japanese and given how close the standings are, expect to see a little more urgency from the Samurai Blue, who do not have the luxury of holding a slight cushion in the table, like The Arabian Falcons.

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