Lebanon and Iran close out their 2022 FIFA World Cup qualifying campaigns with a meeting at the Imam Reza Stadium in Mashhad on Tuesday.
Both teams have little to play for heading into the final round of matches, with their respective fates as regards qualification already all but sealed.
Match preview
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With the sides already guaranteed a place in November's World Cup, Iran fell to a 2-0 defeat against South Korea at the Seoul World Cup International Stadium on Thursday.
Goals in either half from Son Heung-min and Kim Young-Gwon saw Dragan Skocic's men come away empty-handed following a toothless display in the Korean capital.
As a result, the Lions of Persia have dropped to second place in Group A of the Asian qualifiers, one point adrift of current leaders South Korea.
Next up is a clash versus an opposing outfit still looking for their first win in this fixture off the back of six consecutive losses dating back to 2000.
Unbeaten in home matches in over three years, Tuesday's hosts are huge favourites to emerge victorious and cap off what has been a successful qualifying journey.
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Lebanon were on the receiving end of a 3-0 thrashing against Syria when the teams faced off at the Saida Municipal on Thursday.
First-half goals from Alaa Al-Dali, Mardik Mardikian and Mohammed Al-Marmour put Ivan Hasek's men to the sword.
The Cedars are three points shy of the United Arab Emirates in the race for a play-off spot and would need results elsewhere to go their way if they are to reach the next stage in June.
Having scored the joint-fewest goals in the group, Tuesday's visitors will need to get going at the attacking end to salvage their already faint hopes of a World Cup place.
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Team News
Shoja Khalilzadeh was hauled off in the first half of Iran's defeat to South Korea last time out, making him a doubt for this one.
Aref Gholami came on for Khalilzadeh in the aforementioned game and is expected to come into the starting XI should the latter be deemed unfit to participate.
The attacking trio of Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Saman Ghoddos and Mehdi Taremi remain unavailable having tested positive for coronavirus.
Lebanon's Abbas Assi had to come off with a minor injury on the stroke of half time in his country's most recent involvement, and the 26-year-old could miss Tuesday's contest.
Iran possible starting lineup:
Abezadeh; Gholami, Kanaani, Hosseini, Mohammadi; Gholizadeh, Hajsafi, Noorafkan, Nourollahi, Amiri; Azmoun
Lebanon possible starting lineup:
Matar; Sabra, Al Zein, Oumari, El Zein; Ayoub, Dhaini, Haydar; Matar, Assi, Kdouh
We say: Iran 2-0 Lebanon
Iran have several key players missing at the top end of the pitch but should still have enough to see off the threat of Lebanon. We are backing the hosts to claim all three points come the final whistle.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 61.21%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Lebanon had a probability of 16.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.08%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Lebanon win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Iran in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Iran.
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