The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Stoke City and Peterborough United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Stoke City and Peterborough United face off in the league for the first time in 19 years on Saturday afternoon, with the sides at opposite ends of the Championship table.
The hosts are up in fifth place thanks to back-to-back victories, while Peterborough are winless in three and are only one spot above the relegation zone.
Read more.
Match preview
A lot has changed for Stoke and Peterborough since their most recent encounter in March 2002 - a 1-0 win for the Potters - but they are now on a level playing field. While Michael O'Neill's men are seeking promotion to the Premier League, however, United are focused solely on staying in the division. The Posh hit a bit of form towards the end of October with wins over Hull City and Queens Park Rangers in quick succession, but they have since collected just one point from nine. Following a 3-0 loss at Swansea City and a 1-1 draw to Huddersfield Town, Darren Ferguson's side were undone by an Aleksandar Mitrovic goal in a 1-0 loss to Fulham last time out. That was the eighth game this season Peterborough have failed to score in, with no team in the division attempting fewer shots (138) or finding the target (48) less often. Stoke have not exactly been scoring for fun of late, but they only needed one goal to see off Blackpool and then Luton Town in their last two games before the two-week break. Those away wins moved City into the playoff spots, and they are now chasing a third win in a row for the first time since October 2016, when they were in the Premier League. The Potters tend to do well when they face United, meanwhile, having gone 12 without defeat in this fixture - a run that includes five straight wins against the Posh. Three more points will be the target on Saturday for O'Neill, but Peterborough are themselves just as desperate for a positive result as they attempt to climb the division.Stoke City Championship form:
- L
- L
- L
- D
- W
- W
Peterborough United Championship form:
- L
- W
- W
- L
- D
- L
Team News
Stoke were rocked this week with the news that defender Harry Souttar is out for the rest of the season with an injury sustained on international duty with Australia. Souttar has started all but one of Stoke's league games this term, so the likes of James Chester and Ben Wilmot will have to step up in the coming months. The centre-back joins a long list of absentees that also includes Sam Clucas, Abdallah Sima and Alfie Doughty. After scoring the winner against Luton a fortnight ago, Jacob Brown has now been directly involved in six goals in his last six appearances - three goals and three assists. As for the visitors, Jack Marriott and Joel Randall remain sidelined, while Christy Pym continues to be overlooked for selection by Ferguson. Peterborough pushed rampant Fulham all the way in their last match and may stick with the same, or a very similar, starting lineup for this trip to the bet365 Stadium. Should Ferguson wish to change things at all, Idriss Kanu, Kwame Poku and Ronnie Edwards are all options to come into the side. Stoke City possible starting lineup: Bursik; Ostigard, Wilmot, Chester; Smith, Vrancic, Thompson, Sawyers, Tymon; Campbell, Brown Peterborough United possible starting lineup: Cornell; Ward, Beevers, Kent, Butler; Burrows, Norburn, Taylor, Dembele; Szmodics; Clarke-HarrisWe said: Stoke City 2-0 Peterborough United
The international break came at the wrong time for Stoke, who picked up six points from six before the hiatus, and they will be looking to hit the ground running here. Peterborough's last win came a month ago and, given their poor record in this fixture down the years, we are backing the home side to come out on top.Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 56.22%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Peterborough United had a probability of 19.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.81%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.4%), while for a Peterborough United win it was 0-1 (6.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stoke City | Draw | Peterborough United |
| 56.22% | 24.07% | 19.71% |
| Both teams to score 48.06% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
