The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Reading and Nottingham Forest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Reading play host to Nottingham Forest on Saturday afternoon in their first match since being deducted six points for breaching the EFL's financial regulations.
The Royals now sit six points adrift of their 13th-placed visitors, who ended a three-game winless streak before the international break.
Read more.
Match preview
After weeks of speculation and expectation, Reading were officially docked six points earlier this week, moving them down into 19th position. The punishment would have come as no surprise to Veljko Paunovic, and the Serbian would have always had in his mind that his squad would need to be in a position to react when it was confirmed. Before the international break, they showed that they could perform when the chips were down as 18-year-old Jahmari Clarke netted a double to secure a 2-1 victory at Birmingham City. Paunovic has been forced to call upon many of the club's academy players this season, a consequence of the restrictions placed on their business in the transfer market. Andy Carroll has now linked up with the club, the experienced target man handing Reading a different dimension ahead of welcoming Forest to the Madejski Stadium. Ahead of their fixture at home to Preston North End, Forest were in danger of undermining all of their previous good work under recently-appointed head coach Steve Cooper. However, after a run of three matches without success, Forest responded with a 3-0 victory at the City Ground, making it 18 points from nine games under Cooper's watch. Lewis Grabban added two more goals to his tally, taking his total to six strikes since September 29 and reestablishing himself as one of the division's best forwards. Forest make the trip at the weekend having put together a six-match unbeaten streak away from home, a run which has returned 14 points.Reading Championship form:
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
Nottingham Forest Championship form:
- W
- W
- L
- D
- D
- W
Team News
Paunovic has acknowledged that Clarke will miss out on a potential start after suffering an ankle injury. With Carroll only fit enough for a spot among the replacements at best, Paunovic could name an unchanged starting lineup. Cooper may also take the same approach when naming his Forest XI after a successful switch in system. However, James Garner and Joe Lolley, potentially for Philip Zinckernagel, are both realistic alternatives if the Forest head coach decides on a fresh face. Loic Mbe Soh and Jordi Osei-Tutu both remain on the sidelines. Reading possible starting lineup: Southwood; Moore, Dann, Holmes; Yiadom, Laurent, Dele-Bashiru, Rahman; Swift, Ejaria; Puscas Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup: Samba; Spence, McKenna, Worrall, Lowe; Yates, Colback; Johnson, Zinckernagel, Mighten; GrabbanWe said: Reading 1-1 Nottingham Forest
With both teams winning before the international break, we expect this contest to be competitive. Each club can claim to be the marginal favourites, and it leads us to back an entertaining share of the spoils.Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 43.74%. A win for Reading had a probability of 28.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (8.32%). The likeliest Reading win was 1-0 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Reading | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
| 28.96% | 27.31% | 43.74% |
| Both teams to score 47.98% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
