The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Middlesbrough and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
We said: Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby County
While Derby are on a high, facing Middlesbrough at the Riverside Stadium represents one of the toughest tasks in the division. With that in mind, we are backing the home side to edge this contest by the odd goal in three. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 56.38%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 18.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.65%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Derby County |
| 56.38% | 25.03% | 18.59% |
| Both teams to score 43.7% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
