Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 42.92%. A win for Shanghai Shenhua had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (7.69%). The likeliest Shanghai Shenhua win was 1-0 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.