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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.26%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 35.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.75%) and 0-2 (6.02%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 2-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Stoke City | Draw | Middlesbrough |
35.46% ( 0) | 24.27% ( -0) | 40.26% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 60.23% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.61% ( 0.03) | 42.38% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.21% ( 0.03) | 64.79% ( -0.03) |
Stoke City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.4% ( 0.02) | 23.6% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.32% ( 0.02) | 57.67% ( -0.02) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.84% ( 0.01) | 21.16% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.98% ( 0.02) | 54.02% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Stoke City | Draw | Middlesbrough |
2-1 @ 8.09% 1-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.21% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.89% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.02% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.51% 4-1 @ 1.41% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.14% Total : 35.46% | 1-1 @ 11.19% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.99% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0) Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.27% | 1-2 @ 8.7% 0-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.02% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.5% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.25% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.12% 1-4 @ 1.75% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.26% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.21% Other @ 2.7% Total : 40.26% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 25 | 7 | 6 | 70 | 28 | 42 | 82 |
2 | Leicester CityLeicester | 37 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 33 | 41 | 82 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 38 | 24 | 9 | 5 | 80 | 49 | 31 | 81 |
4 | Southampton | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 73 | 47 | 26 | 73 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 36 | 23 | 66 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 69 | 54 | 15 | 61 |
7 | Hull City | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 58 |
8 | Coventry CityCoventry | 37 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 59 | 43 | 16 | 57 |
9 | Preston North EndPreston | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 56 |
10 | Middlesbrough | 38 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 53 | 52 | 1 | 54 |
11 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 38 | 16 | 5 | 17 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 53 |
12 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 48 |
13 | Watford | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 48 |
14 | Bristol City | 38 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 47 |
15 | Swansea CitySwansea | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 48 | 58 | -10 | 46 |
16 | Millwall | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 43 |
17 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 42 |
18 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 54 | 62 | -8 | 41 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 35 | 53 | -18 | 41 |
20 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 40 |
21 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 42 | 59 | -17 | 39 |
22 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 38 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 42 | 61 | -19 | 39 |
23 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 38 | 11 | 5 | 22 | 30 | 61 | -31 | 38 |
24 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 30 | 77 | -47 | 20 |
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