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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 82.44%. A draw had a probability of 11.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.07%) and 4-0 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (1.9%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
82.44% ( 0.07) | 11.53% ( -0.04) | 6.03% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 47.9% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.6% ( 0.11) | 29.4% ( -0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
49.53% ( 0.13) | 50.47% ( -0.13) |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.74% ( 0.03) | 5.26% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
79.25% ( 0.1) | 20.75% ( -0.09) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.56% ( 0) | 49.44% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.74% ( 0) | 84.26% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
2-0 @ 11.27% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 11.07% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 7.8% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 5.74% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.75% 6-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) 7-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.64% Total : 82.43% | 1-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.74% Total : 11.53% | 1-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 1.83% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.3% Total : 6.03% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 26 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 66 | 18 | 48 | 70 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 78 | 31 | 47 | 60 |
3 | Stuttgart | 26 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 56 |
4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 53 | 32 | 21 | 50 |
5 | RB Leipzig | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 49 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 40 |
7 | Augsburg | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 35 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 33 |
9 | Freiburg | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 33 |
10 | Werder Bremen | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 30 |
11 | Heidenheim | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 29 |
12 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 28 |
13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 25 | 42 | -17 | 28 |
14 | Wolfsburg | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 25 |
15 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 54 | -24 | 25 |
16 | Mainz 05Mainz | 26 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 19 |
17 | FC Koln | 26 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 18 |
18 | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 26 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 65 | -39 | 13 |
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