PSV Eindhoven and Leicester City meet in the second leg of their Europa Conference League quarter-final with the aggregate scoreline locked at 0-0.
At a time when PSV are four points off top spot in the Eredivisie, Leicester are down in ninth position in the Premier League, albeit with several matches in hand.
Match preview
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There have been times during this campaign when Leicester have looked a shadow of the team which have performed consistently to a high level since Brendan Rodgers's arrival, but the signs are there that the Foxes have well and truly turned the corner.
Six wins and just two defeats have been recorded from their last 10 fixtures, the most recent triumph coming on Sunday as they defeated Crystal Palace by a 2-1 scoreline.
That result was achieved even with Rodgers making numerous changes to his starting lineup, highlighting that the Northern Irishman is prioritising this competition in order to achieve another season of European football.
Although Rodgers and his squad would have wanted to be travelling to the Netherlands with an advantage, they will be relatively accepting of a goalless draw being recorded at the King Power Stadium.
However, with just two away victories to their name in eight attempts since the turn of the year, there is an argument that the East Midlands outfit are marginal outsiders to progress through to the last four.
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That particularly rings true when you consider that PSV are on a 15-match unbeaten streak in all competitions, 11 of those outings ending in victory.
The recent 3-3 draw at FC Twente, where PSV found themselves three goals adrift, appears to be a blip, and they have since kept clean sheets at Leicester and against RKC Waalwijk at the weekend.
Five shutouts have come in six outings, while the only time that at least two goals have not been scored in a match during a five-game period was in the first leg of this tie.
Although Roger Schmidt has already been replaced by Ruud van Nistelrooy from 2022-23 onwards, the German knows that there are still three opportunities to claim silverware before his departure.
The KNVB Beker final against Ajax comes three days after this fixture, but that will not stop Schmidt from going all out for victory in this tie with the club targeting a first European trophy since 1988.
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Team News
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Rodgers made a total of seven changes to his Leicester XI for the game with Palace, and it would not be a surprise if each of those players were recalled on Thursday.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall will move back into a deeper role courtesy of Nampalys Mendy being ineligible for this competition.
At his pre-match press conference, Rodgers revealed that no decision will be taken on Jamie Vardy's fitness until next week as he continues to recover from a knee injury.
PSV will be able to welcome back Erick Gutierrez after the Mexican served a one-match ban for the fixture at the King Power Stadium.
With widespread changes made to the attack at the weekend, the likes of Noni Madueke, Mario Gotze, Cody Gakpo and Eran Zahavi should all return to the starting lineup.
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Mvogo; Junior, Teze, Ramalho, Max; Sangare, Gutierrez; Madueke, Gotze, Gakpo; Zahavi
Leicester City possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Pereira, Fofana, Evans, Castagne; Maddison, Tielemans, Dewsbury-Hall; Albrighton, Iheanacho, Barnes
We say: PSV Eindhoven 1-2 Leicester City (Leicester City to win 2-1 on aggregate)
Given how competitive the first leg proved to be, we should expect more of the same on Thursday. It would not come as a surprise if this tie went all the way to extra time and penalties, but do not rule out a late Leicester goal securing their progress during normal time.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 50.8%. A win for Leicester City had a probability of 27.2% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.98%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Leicester City win was 1-2 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Leicester City in this match.
