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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Millwall had a probability of 29.28% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Millwall win was 0-1 (10.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Norwich City would win this match.
Result | ||
Norwich City | Draw | Millwall |
42.46% ( 0.44) | 28.25% ( 0.24) | 29.28% ( -0.68) |
Both teams to score 45.51% ( -0.97) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.64% ( -1.07) | 60.36% ( 1.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.49% ( -0.81) | 80.51% ( 0.82) |
Norwich City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.88% ( -0.27) | 28.12% ( 0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.21% ( -0.34) | 63.79% ( 0.34) |
Millwall Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.31% ( -1.11) | 36.69% ( 1.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.52% ( -1.13) | 73.48% ( 1.13) |
Score Analysis |
Norwich City | Draw | Millwall |
1-0 @ 13.09% ( 0.43) 2-1 @ 8.33% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 8.3% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 3.52% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.71% Total : 42.46% | 1-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 10.31% ( 0.4) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.64% Total : 28.24% | 0-1 @ 10.34% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 6.58% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 5.19% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.09) Other @ 1.85% Total : 29.28% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 25 | 7 | 6 | 70 | 28 | 42 | 82 |
2 | Leicester CityLeicester | 37 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 33 | 41 | 82 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 38 | 24 | 9 | 5 | 80 | 49 | 31 | 81 |
4 | Southampton | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 73 | 47 | 26 | 73 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 36 | 23 | 66 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 69 | 54 | 15 | 61 |
7 | Hull City | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 58 |
8 | Coventry CityCoventry | 37 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 59 | 43 | 16 | 57 |
9 | Preston North EndPreston | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 56 |
10 | Middlesbrough | 38 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 53 | 52 | 1 | 54 |
11 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 38 | 16 | 5 | 17 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 53 |
12 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 48 |
13 | Watford | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 48 |
14 | Bristol City | 38 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 47 |
15 | Swansea CitySwansea | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 48 | 58 | -10 | 46 |
16 | Millwall | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 43 |
17 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 42 |
18 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 54 | 62 | -8 | 41 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 35 | 53 | -18 | 41 |
20 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 40 |
21 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 42 | 59 | -17 | 39 |
22 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 38 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 42 | 61 | -19 | 39 |
23 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 38 | 11 | 5 | 22 | 30 | 61 | -31 | 38 |
24 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 30 | 77 | -47 | 20 |
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