Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 46.95%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 29.06% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.37%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.