Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 38.68%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 36.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 0-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
