Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 36.06%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.47%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (12.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
