Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 48.02%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 25.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 2-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.53%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (8.69%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
