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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 37.55%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gillingham would win this match.
Result | ||
Gillingham | Draw | MK Dons |
37.55% ( -0) | 26.64% ( -0.01) | 35.81% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 52.07% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.09% ( 0.02) | 52.9% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.49% ( 0.02) | 74.51% ( -0.02) |
Gillingham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.67% ( 0.01) | 27.32% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.22% ( 0.01) | 62.78% ( -0.01) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.65% ( 0.02) | 28.35% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.91% ( 0.02) | 64.09% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Gillingham | Draw | MK Dons |
1-0 @ 10.05% 2-1 @ 8.22% 2-0 @ 6.52% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.55% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.82% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.08% Total : 37.55% | 1-1 @ 12.66% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.63% | 0-1 @ 9.77% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.99% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.16% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.36% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.59% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.18% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0) Other @ 2.73% Total : 35.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 51 |
2 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 25 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 49 |
3 | Wrexham | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 49 |
4 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 48 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 44 |
6 | Notts County | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 42 |
7 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 39 |
8 | MK Dons | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 39 |
9 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 39 |
10 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 38 |
11 | Gillingham | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 38 |
12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 37 |
13 | Walsall | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 36 |
14 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 52 | -3 | 34 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 |
17 | Morecambe | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 33 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 31 |
19 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 28 |
20 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 27 |
21 | Salford City | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 24 |
23 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 18 |
24 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 18 |
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