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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 46.24%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Barrow had a probability of 26.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Barrow win it was 0-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Barrow |
46.24% ( 1.06) | 27.27% ( -0.4) | 26.49% ( -0.67) |
Both teams to score 46.51% ( 0.61) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.74% ( 1.01) | 58.26% ( -1.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.11% ( 0.79) | 78.89% ( -0.79) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.81% ( 0.99) | 25.19% ( -0.99) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.08% ( 1.35) | 59.92% ( -1.35) |
Barrow Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.17% ( -0.01) | 37.82% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.4% ( -0) | 74.6% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Barrow |
1-0 @ 13.13% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 9.06% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 4.05% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.24% Total : 46.23% | 1-1 @ 12.77% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 9.53% ( -0.38) 2-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.27% | 0-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.36) 1-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.5% ( -0.18) 1-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.66% Total : 26.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Leyton Orient | 43 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 87 |
2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 44 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 60 | 40 | 20 | 80 |
3 | Stevenage | 43 | 21 | 13 | 9 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 76 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 44 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 61 | 36 | 25 | 75 |
5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 44 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 63 | 39 | 24 | 75 |
6 | Salford City | 44 | 21 | 9 | 14 | 69 | 51 | 18 | 72 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 43 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 72 |
8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 43 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 72 |
9 | BarrowBarrow | 44 | 18 | 8 | 18 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 62 |
10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 43 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 58 |
11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 57 |
12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 57 |
13 | Grimsby Town | 43 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 55 |
14 | Newport CountyNewport | 43 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 53 |
15 | Gillingham | 44 | 13 | 13 | 18 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 52 |
16 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 44 | 15 | 7 | 22 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 52 |
17 | Walsall | 44 | 11 | 18 | 15 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 51 |
18 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 42 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 41 | 53 | -12 | 51 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 44 | 12 | 13 | 19 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 49 |
20 | AFC Wimbledon | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 47 |
21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 43 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 53 | 64 | -11 | 45 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 44 | 11 | 12 | 21 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 45 |
23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 44 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 48 | 76 | -28 | 39 |
R | Rochdale | 44 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 41 | 68 | -27 | 34 |
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