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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 61.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 16.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.44%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 1-0 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Cheltenham Town | Draw | Derby County |
16.47% ( 0.06) | 21.83% ( 0.01) | 61.7% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 48.91% ( 0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.83% ( 0.03) | 48.16% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.68% ( 0.03) | 70.32% ( -0.03) |
Cheltenham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.6% ( 0.09) | 42.4% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.22% ( 0.08) | 78.78% ( -0.08) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.91% ( -0.01) | 15.09% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.38% ( -0.02) | 43.62% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Cheltenham Town | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.45% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.69% Total : 16.47% | 1-1 @ 10.38% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.84% Total : 21.83% | 0-1 @ 12.09% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 11.44% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.82% ( 0) 0-3 @ 7.21% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 6.19% ( -0) 0-4 @ 3.41% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.93% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 1.29% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.26% ( 0) 1-5 @ 1.11% ( -0) Other @ 2.29% Total : 61.69% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Portsmouth | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 53 |
2 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 24 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 51 |
3 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 50 | 27 | 23 | 49 |
4 | Derby CountyDerby | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 24 | 23 | 49 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 46 |
6 | Barnsley | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 28 | 18 | 43 |
7 | Stevenage | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 43 |
8 | Blackpool | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 32 | 10 | 39 |
9 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 25 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 36 |
10 | Bristol Rovers | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 34 |
11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 32 |
12 | Leyton Orient | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 30 |
14 | Port Vale | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 30 |
15 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 30 |
16 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 29 |
17 | Burton Albion | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 28 |
18 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 27 |
19 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 27 |
20 | Exeter CityExeter | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 37 | -19 | 26 |
21 | Reading | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 23 |
22 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 23 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 38 | -17 | 20 |
24 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 18 |
> League One Full Table |