Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 53.71%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 22.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.82%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.51%), while for a Spartak Moscow win it was 1-0 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.