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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 69.34%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 13.79%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 3-1 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.42%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (3.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | FC Utrecht |
69.34% ( 0.55) | 16.88% ( -0.14) | 13.79% ( -0.4) |
Both teams to score 59.89% ( -0.63) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.34% ( -0.27) | 30.66% ( 0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
48.02% ( -0.32) | 51.98% ( 0.33) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92% ( 0.05) | 8% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.8% ( 0.12) | 28.21% ( -0.11) |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.1% ( -0.71) | 34.9% ( 0.72) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.36% ( -0.76) | 71.64% ( 0.77) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | FC Utrecht |
2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 7.89% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 7.5% ( 0.16) 1-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 4.98% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 2.62% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.06) 5-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.03) 4-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.89% Total : 69.34% | 1-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.27% Total : 16.88% | 1-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 2.94% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.29% Total : 13.79% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 |
2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 |
3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 |
5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 |
6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 |
8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 |
9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 |
10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 |
11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 |
13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 |
14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 |
15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 |
16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 |
R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 |
R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 |
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