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Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League | Gameweek 24
Apr 16, 2023 at 4am UK
Westpac Stadium
Brisbane Roar
Wellington
2 - 2
Brisbane Roar
Zawada (35' pen.), Sasse (56')
Ball (67')
FT(HT: 1-1)
O'Shea (8' pen.), Neville (82')
Gomulka (40'), Neville (43'), Aldred (46'), Hingert (90+4')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Sunday's Australian A-League clash between Wellington Phoenix and Brisbane Roar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Melbourne City 4-1 Wellington
Monday, April 10 at 7am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Brisbane Roar 3-0 Newcastle Jets
Saturday, April 8 at 8am in Australian A-League

We said: Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Brisbane Roar

Wellington Phoenix have certainly been the stronger of the two sides throughout the campaign, but they will be low on confidence after three straight defeats, while the visitors have a degree of momentum following their recent improvement, and we back them to pull off a somewhat surprise result on their travels this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 35.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.17%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.

Result
Wellington PhoenixDrawBrisbane Roar
39.92% (0.025999999999996 0.03) 24.68% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08) 35.4% (0.058999999999997 0.06)
Both teams to score 58.75% (0.295 0.3)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.69% (0.379 0.38)44.31% (-0.374 -0.37)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.32% (0.366 0.37)66.68% (-0.36200000000001 -0.36)
Wellington Phoenix Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.84% (0.17999999999999 0.18)22.16% (-0.175 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.45% (0.267 0.27)55.55% (-0.262 -0.26)
Brisbane Roar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.48% (0.20699999999999 0.21)24.52% (-0.204 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.01% (0.292 0.29)58.99% (-0.286 -0.29)
Score Analysis
    Wellington Phoenix 39.92%
    Brisbane Roar 35.4%
    Draw 24.68%
Wellington PhoenixDrawBrisbane Roar
2-1 @ 8.67% (0.0020000000000007 0)
1-0 @ 8.19% (-0.09 -0.09)
2-0 @ 6.17% (-0.035 -0.04)
3-1 @ 4.36% (0.024 0.02)
3-0 @ 3.1% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.06% (0.034 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.64% (0.017 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.17% (0.006 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.15% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 39.92%
1-1 @ 11.51% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-2 @ 6.1% (0.037999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 5.43% (-0.089 -0.09)
3-3 @ 1.43% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.68%
1-2 @ 8.09% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
0-1 @ 7.64% (-0.079 -0.08)
0-2 @ 5.37% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.79% (0.026 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.86% (0.035 0.03)
0-3 @ 2.52% (0.004 0)
1-4 @ 1.33% (0.017 0.02)
2-4 @ 1% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 35.4%

How you voted: Wellington vs Brisbane Roar

Wellington Phoenix
80.0%
Draw
0.0%
Brisbane Roar
20.0%
5
Head to Head
Jan 14, 2023 6am
Brisbane Roar
0-1
Wellington

Neville (15')
Zawada (65')
Sasse (31'), Ball (90+5'), Mauragis (90+1')
Mar 30, 2022 9.05am
Brisbane Roar
0-3
Wellington

Ivanovic (17'), Mlinaric (45+1'), O'Shea (72')
Neville (28' og.), Waine (48'), Old (57')
Mar 12, 2022 6.05am
Brisbane Roar
2-1
Wellington
Akbari (7'), Hore (76')
Lescano (25'), (26'), Daley (57')
Hooper (72')
Payne (31'), Rufer (36'), Ball (90+4')
Feb 16, 2022 6.25am
Wellington
3-0
Brisbane Roar
Wootton (33'), Sandoval (63'), Piscopo (67')
van Hattum (87')

Neville (77')
May 1, 2021 8.05am
rhs 2.0
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