While the calendar is drawing to a close in some sports around the world, it is not the case in horse racing with the Queen Elizabeth II Cup in Japan on the agenda for punters on November 15. Although many in the United Kingdom will be focused on the races which are taking place at Cheltenham on the same day, the Grade 1 affair in Asia should also be getting their attention as Lucky Lilac attempts to become just the fourth horse to defend their crown. The five-year-old will inevitably face competition from a field which throws up the prospect of a relative outsider claiming victory on the one-mile three-furlong course in Kyoto, but most race fans will want to know whether they have reason to back a horse who is in line to go off as an odds-on favourite.
When assessing the odds for the 2020 Queen Elizabeth II Cup horse racing betting as given by 888 sport, it is worth noting that Lucky Lilac has only emerged victorious on one occasion since the triumph of 12 months ago. That sole success came after the cobwebs had previously been shaken off after an 84-day break, and the margin of the win was by a neck over one furlong less. The following outing, which was over the same distance as the Queen Elizabeth II Cup, saw Chrono Genesis reverse the previous result, with Lucky Lilac finishing down in sixth position. With only third spot being achieved in the most recent run-out in August, it is difficult to justify placing your faith in a horse whose five wins from 16 outings have all come by two lengths of less, and it means there is much more value in backing one of the filly's rivals.
As it stands, you can get Normcore at betting odds in the region of 7/2, and you should not be surprised if that price gets increasing lower in the days leading up the race. Normcore was the horse which got the better of Lucky Lilac in Sapporo at the back end of August, finishing two-and-a-half lengths ahead. It marked the second time that the fellow five-year-old had defeated Lucky Lilac in the space of 18 months, as well as recording their first win in five attempts. On the negative side, Normcore only finished in fifth place on their solitary appearance in this race when going off at 14/5, but being two years the wiser will only play into their favour.
When Lucky Lilac edged to victory 12 months ago, they went off priced at just over 4/1, and it was Loves Only You who ended up as the beaten 6/4 favourite. Although it came as a considerable disappointment to their team, context would have been taken from it being just the third race for the horse, meaning that a third spot in such a high-quality race should have been regarded as a plus. Nevertheless, Loves Only You has failed to build on the promise of previous years, recording just one top-three in three outings since last November. They were comfortably beaten by Salacia - a 14-1 shot in this race - as recently as October 17, and there is little to no value in a win-only or each-way bet being placed on Loves Only You unless their prices drifts out to 5/1 and beyond before raceday.
Before you start to get too excited about taking Salacia at big odds, it is worth noting that their win last month was their first in 14 appearances. It means that 14/1 feels about right for this horse, but the statistic that should grab your interest is that Salacia claimed sixth place at 56/1 in last year's race. Of course, that would not have earned you any money, but that performance and the recent success in Tokyo should lead to each-way bets aplenty being placed on this horse. With that in mind, do not be surprised to see Salacia go off at a much shorter price.
If we are going to talk about last year's strongest performers at attractive betting odds, then we cannot ignore Centelleo. Unlikely some of its rivals, this horse has been all about consistency since debuting in 2018, never finishing lower than seventh in their eight runs on the flat. Like Salacia, their only triumph of their career came in their most recent race - in Nakayama over this distance in September - but this horse has had four finishes in the top five in succession, including a fourth position in the 2019 Queen Elizabeth II Cup. That performance came after going off at nearly 20/1 and although the most recent promising displays have come at Grade 2 and 3, this horse is going to attract each-way punters. Owners U Carrot Farm have had two winners in the last five stagings of this race, and there are plenty of reasons to believe that they will make it three in six next weekend.
