Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 51.86%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 24.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (6.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bala Town would win this match.
