Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.27%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 25.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.52%) and 1-2 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.03%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
