Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.04%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.96%) and 1-2 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.71%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (9.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 16.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.
