Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 55.09%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 18.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.85%) and 1-2 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.86%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (7.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
