Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 41.53%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Cerro win was 1-0 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Danubio would win this match.
