Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 41.04%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.35%) and 0-2 (7.76%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 1-0 (10.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
