Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 43.3%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 30.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.
