Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Sochi in this match.
