Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 37.5%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 35.45% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (10.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Famalicao in this match.