Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 55.87%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 19.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.45%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (7.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
