Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 41.51%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Chicago Fire | Draw | New York City FC |
41.51% | 25.51% | 32.97% |
Both teams to score 55.27% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.43% | 48.56% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.31% | 70.68% |
Chicago Fire Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.76% | 23.23% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.85% | 57.14% |
New York City FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72% | 27.99% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.36% | 63.63% |
Score Analysis |
Chicago Fire | Draw | New York City FC |
1-0 @ 9.49% 2-1 @ 8.82% 2-0 @ 6.93% 3-1 @ 4.29% 3-0 @ 3.37% 3-2 @ 2.73% 4-1 @ 1.57% 4-0 @ 1.23% 4-2 @ 1% Other @ 2.08% Total : 41.51% | 1-1 @ 12.08% 0-0 @ 6.5% 2-2 @ 5.62% 3-3 @ 1.16% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.5% | 0-1 @ 8.28% 1-2 @ 7.69% 0-2 @ 5.27% 1-3 @ 3.27% 2-3 @ 2.38% 0-3 @ 2.24% 1-4 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.8% Total : 32.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 51 | 20 | 31 | 51 |
2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 46 |
3 | New York City FCNY City | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 48 | 30 | 18 | 45 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 41 | 33 | 8 | 41 |
5 | Orlando City | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 36 |
6 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 36 |
7 | Columbus Crew | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 35 |
8 | New England RevolutionNew England | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 34 |
9 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 43 | 46 | -3 | 34 |
10 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 27 | 10 | 2 | 15 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 32 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 30 |
12 | Toronto | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 30 |
13 | Chicago Fire | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 30 |
14 | DC United | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 28 | 55 | -27 | 22 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 51 | 20 | 31 | 51 |
2 | CF MontrealMontreal | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 46 |
3 | New York City FCNY City | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 48 | 30 | 18 | 45 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 41 | 33 | 8 | 41 |
5 | Orlando City | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 36 |
6 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 36 |
7 | Columbus Crew | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 35 |
8 | New England RevolutionNew England | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 34 |
9 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 43 | 46 | -3 | 34 |
10 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 27 | 10 | 2 | 15 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 32 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 30 |
12 | Toronto | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 30 |
13 | Chicago Fire | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 30 |
14 | DC United | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 28 | 55 | -27 | 22 |