Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 47.77%. A win for Pumas had a probability of 27.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Pumas win was 0-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Toluca in this match.
