Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 53.67%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Mazatlan had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a Mazatlan win it was 0-1 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
