Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queretaro win with a probability of 39.79%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queretaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Queretaro would win this match.
