Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.65%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
