Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 45.1%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
