Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 40.31%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 32.4% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
