Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
